The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has called upon policymakers to “act swiftly and find a workable solution” in the current debt ceiling negotiations.  

“The likely impact to the financial markets, interest rates, and to every family in America will be costly if the ceiling is not raised,” says David H. Stevens, president and CEO of the MBA, in a statement issued this week.

Some have argued a solution has always existed that will eliminate the necessity for Republicans/Democrats to negotiate to drastically cut federal spending or Social Security (which does not contribute to the federal deficit), Medicare and Medicaid: the President can raise the debt ceiling unilaterally.

The Census Bureau has released some very interesting statistics from the American Housing Survey. The survey covers characteristics of the housing inventory in most metropolitan areas and there are always some surprises. For example, in 2009 in Seattle, homeowners in the Sea-Tac metro area paid a median monthly housing cost of $1,576, while  renters paid $1,019 by comparison. Renters contributed a higher percentage of their incomes to housing costs (30%) than owners did (23%).

Looking at Chicago for comparison, homeowners paid a median cost of $1,479 per month while the renter median was $895, also in 2009. Percentages of contributions to household costs were similar, with owners at 31%, and renters at 24%.

Renter centric New York (we’re using New York-Nassau-Suffolk-Orange) is very similar to Seattle, with the exception that I have no idea where Suffolk-Orange is or how it got mixed into the census data. I’m guessing some poor schlub from that federal office of management and budget that does these definitions, grew up there and was tired of being picked on for living in the sticks, and so clamping that onto New York-Nassau (which is mostly Long Island) made them feel more legitimate.

Anyway, in New York-Nassau-Suffolk-Orange, homeowners, again in 2009, paid $1,517 in monthly housing costs compared to $1,019 for renters. Now
the more suspicious part of me (being Research Jack) wonders how both Seattle and the New York cluster ended up exactly at $1,019 for renters, something I intend to find out and will report back to you. Consequently, the percentage of household income paid by owners at 25% was slightly higher than Seattle, while New York cluster renters, at 29% was slightly lower than Seattle.

I was surprised by the percentage of homeowners that did not have mortgages, with New York at 35%, Chicago at 25% and Seattle at 26%. It isn’t unusual for people to age in place and so potentially many of these residences, once estate issues become prevalent, might contribute to the pool of single family rental homes if the family opts not to sell. These non-mortgage based residents represent a stunning number of households in each of these three metro areas.

The median years these homes were built also tell an interesting story, with Chicago at 1968, the New York cluster at 1951 and Seattle at 1977.
Since only 13% of the units in Seattle have central air conditioning, while 20% in New York and 70% in Chicago do, there is obviously going to be a lot of renovation going on as the housing cycle changes.

The survey asked a number of questions about housing tenure migration, and it turns out that in Seattle the most common reason for choosing
a neighborhood was convenience to employment at 25%, with New York similarly at 25% and Chicago at 18%. Another inquiry suggested
financial reasons, at 28% in New York, 25% in Chicago and 25% in Seattle were behind the location decision.

Owner and renter metrics have, in many respects, reverted back to the trends that we were used to seeing almost six years ago, and so I’m
expecting to see a return to more conservative decision making on the part of renters and the inevitable impact on property operations. While
2011 is seeing great improvement over prior periods, we’re still seeing stress in the markets.

Jack Kern is the Managing Director of Kern Investment Research, LLC based near Washington, DC and an avid fan of data. Since football season
is over and the probability of its return, according to Kern’s forecast is only 46% at the moment, data will just have to keep him busy. In his spare time, he relaxes by exploring the 2010 Census and sharing his findings with an ever-shrinking circle of friends who want to hear about it. If you like data too, contact him at jkern@kernirc.com.

Once you’ve put the name with the face, it’s great to catch up in person every now and then. Next time you’re planning a visit to New York, we hope you’ll schedule some time to stop by our editorial office. Besides an in-depth look at the upcoming editorial calendar with one or more of the MHN editors, the meeting will also result in brainstorming that can lead to other story ideas for MHN Online and MHN TV or perhaps an impromptu podcast.

The same outcome can be accomplished by regularly touching base at one or more industry events during the year, but nothing beats the unhurried nature of the editorial office visit.

Earlier this month we had our annual visit with the folks from Washington, D.C.-based Hickok Cole Architects.

Michael Hickok and Yolanda Cole are principals of Hickok Cole Architects in Washington, D.C.

They brought us up to date on a number of local development projects planned for the area such as the extension of Washington’s Metro through Tysons Corner to Dulles Airport. Reston Station, a transit-oriented, mixed-use development is zoned for 1.3 million sq. ft. of development and incorporating three office buildings, two residential buildings, one hotel, retail space and a 2,300-car underground garage. Ground will be broken on the garage next March and on the residences in late 2012.

While the Mid-Atlantic market has fared much better than most during the downturn, there have still been plenty of challenges for the companies operating there. But, according to Yolanda Cole, AIA, IIDA, LEED AP and principal at Hickok Cole Architects, housing is starting to perk up. “Although we had heard that was the case, we are now really seeing it.”

Hickok Cole’s Fort Totten project—with an enviable location close to the Metro—was put on hold two years ago. “It just died,” Cole said. Initially planned as a 900-unit condo, the original developer has found a new financial partner. “It’s going to come back smaller—half the size at 450 units.” And it will be a rental, rather than a condo.

“The land has been revalued lower,” added Michael E. Hickok, AIA, principal. who founded the firm 22 years ago. “No one is prepared to risk building 900 units [right now] but 450 will make the proforma work. Click here for a short video with Michael. An interesting corollary,” he added, “is that in D.C. you can’t find a high-end condo to buy.”

With rental projects in the pipeline, hiring is picking up at Hickok Cole—about eight people in the last 18 months and Hickok thinks the firm will be hiring again real soon.

“There was a time when we hired a person every month. Before the crash we could predict the future out a year and feel good about it,” said Hickok. “Now if we can predict six months we’re feeling very comfortable.”

Every time we go to the beach (it’s the Rockaways for us), my husband remarks that he can’t believe such a beautiful spot has been so underutilized by the city. True, the beach is packed all summer and the concessions are open and the lifeguards are on duty. But there’s a bit of a neglected feeling.

I suspect he hasn’t thought it through to what his favorite beach would be like if it was converted into a tourist destination or if luxury highrises were built along the boardwalk. But I do admire—and share—the pride he feels for the Rockaways which is truly a transit-oriented beach destination (accessible by both subway and city bus).

According to an interesting New York Times story,  New York’s Next Frontier: The Waterfront, some smart developers, real estate lawyers and city officials have made the same observations. And they’re making plans now so that when the economy improves, they’ll have everything in place at the beginning of the next cycle.

Expect to hear more about waterfront development in all five boroughs of New York. Over the next decade, a massive number of multi-housing units could be added to the market… rentals and condos… affordable and luxury. It’s all mapped out in Vision 2020, a comprehensive waterfront plan recently unveiled by Mayor Michael Bloomberg. There are more than 500 proposals—from how to increase water access for sports enthusiasts to how protecting the city from rising sea levels.