Jack Kern
As we near the end of 2008, it probably comes as no surprise, that the Dr. Kervorkian of automobile investing, Tracinda Corporation's billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, has sold off all of his remaining shares of Ford Motor Co. Having successfully purchased almost $1 billion in shares at an average price of $7.10, Kerkorian sold approximately 134 million shares at around $2.45 a share, a loss in excess of 65%. Apparently his offer to help resuscitate Ford fell on a dumb board of directors, who were fearful of Tracinda's influence.

Ford has withdrawn from the Fed bailout, leaving Chrysler and GM to become Congressional Sycophants. That ought to please Petulent Pelosi, (D-Hell) who only seeks to criticize and not offer any valued advice.

Kirk K. had made major stock purchases, at one time holding about 10% of GM stock, and then trying to buy Chrysler. All in all, it looks like Dr. Kervorkian gave investment advice to Kirk Kerkorian, but in all likelihood, I think their mail somehow got mixed up and buying into Ford looked like a good idea. I guess we'll never know.

Have you driven a Ford lately, now probably means taxi rides collecting Bill Ford and his family members and driving them back to Grosse Point. Wouldn't that be something?

How bad can it get? What a question to ask just before we head into the peak of the holidays. Nevertheless, here are some forecasts for the apartment industry for the new year. KeatFoong

Among the industry experts we are in touch with, at worst there is the prediction that the vacancy rate next year may get as high as during the end of the recession of the late-1980s/early-1990s. Mark Obrinsky, chief economist of National Multi Housing Council (NMHC), says that the vacancy rate (for professionally managed apartments), now 6.2 percent, may head to at least the 7.9 percent level last seen in 1993, or even 8 percent, by year-end 2009.

On the other end, there are economists with an easier view. They say that vacancy rates in 2009, believe it or not, may not be much worse than towards the end of this year. Bernard Markstein, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), predicts that the vacancy rate (the Census Bureau figure for two-plus unit buildings) which was 10.4 percent in the third quarter, will stabilize in the 10 to 10.5 percent range in 2009.

Similarly, George Ratiu, economist at National Association of Realtors (NAR), says multifamily vacancy rate for the third quarter of 2009 will be essentially unchanged from the third quarter of this year. Demand in the apartment sector, Ratiu tells MHN, “is healthy with rent growth being positive, if not stellar.”

However, rent growth, though positive, will continue to trend below the rate of inflation. According to Linwood Thompson, senior vice president and managing director of Marcus & Millichap’s National Multi Housing Group, asking rent growth will be 1.7 percent in 2009. However, effective rents on a national basis will essentially be flat–there will be concessions. And keep in mind that economists are saying the weak labor market will last into 2010.

See? Though times will be tough next year, not a Big Disaster according to these press-time outlooks. Please check out the upcoming January 2009 issue of the Multi Housing News magazine for full coverage of the industry and economic forecasts. And meanwhile, Merry Christmas for those who celebrate Christmas, and Happy New Year to all.

"A lot of people in that plant feel betrayed by their own government. This is class warfare by Republicans against blue-collar workers," United Auto Workers Local 2209 President Orval Plumlee.

 With the big 3 automakers shutting down plant operations for at least the next 30 days, if not longer, UAW rank and file are planning to send a message to their former employers, and it won't be pretty. Their anger is palpable and may show up in a variety of ways. The may vote out their current leadership in exchange for tougher negotiations, or some of them might sign up for job retraining and end up making solar panels in Michigan, or in all likelihood, the may opt for the revenge of the ball bearing.

Years ago, after one of the auto industry strikes, a bunch of workers who had lost benefits at a GM plant decided it was time to get even. They started putting ball bearings, about the size of a large marble, inside the wheel wells, door frames and trunk liners of expensive cars. The end result was that when the car was still, it was normal in all respects, but during normal driving above 30 mph, the ball bearings would jump around creating a rattling noise that was pronounced. When the owner would take the car to the dealer, they couldn't figure out where the offending noise was coming from, and often returned the car, saying nothing was wrong with it. The guys on the line probably laughed about this a bunch, and to this day, I understand some of the vehicles are still on the road.

It does seem, given current economic conditions, that buying a car that just came off of an assembly line, built by someone angry about their impending job loss isn't a smart thing to do. I can just imagine taking the special deal offered for a lower priced car, great financing and an extended warranty and then while driving down the freeway, the windshield wipers blow off (pesky little bolts missing), the radio shorts out (do you smell french fries?) and tires start whistling as the brake shoes disintegrate. In what would be reminiscent of the bat mobile meets police chase spike strips, you end up by the side of the road waiting for the auto club to bring you lots of parts.

It is unlikely that most of the 20 or so plants will reopen after 30 days, given the inventory of unsold vehicles and while Congress argues over the $17.4 billion bailout, it is clear that any quick action to save the auto companies only delays the inevitability of bankruptcy and a very punitive reorganization. The UAW is going to end up a much different workforce they can even imagine.

As brilliant scientist Jeffrey Roper wrote recently:

"Personally, I am tired of hearing American auto execs bemoaning that high costs cripple their competitiveness. Germany produces great cars with staggering labor costs. True we must always be cost conscious but fact is America eschewed sincere commitment to educating future engineers and scientists decades ago and is now stunned that we lack the native capacity to compete abroad. It is not the fault of unions or middle Americans. They can only play the hand they are dealt. The responsibility lies with arrogant industry execs that assumed their position was a birthright and continued to produce sub-par products. Fair warning to any of us that believes success today ensures security tomorrow."

Clearly, Jeff gets it.

Jack Kern is the Managing Director of Kern Investment Research, and is responsible for the contents of this column. Jack said, "Hi, I'm Jack and I approved this column." Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear, until you hit them, and then they're really close. Drive carefully!

Jack Kern
Once I built a tower, up to the sun, brick, and rivet, and lime; Once I built a tower, now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime?(c) "Brother, Can You Spare a Dime," lyrics by Yip Harburg, music by Jay Gorney (1931)

With over $500 billion in commercial real estate loans coming up for renegotiation in the next 3 years, according to some estimates and approximately one third of that in 2009, a number of real estate groups have asked Treasury Secretary Paulson to include commercial real estate as a permissible sector under TARP. With the greatest risks apparently being in office, retail and hospitality, there is a concern that inadequate liquidity will force properties into foreclosure or bankruptcy, adding a needless burden to an already overtaxed economy.

Let's take Miami, downtown Washington, DC, Dallas, TX and Seattle, WA as examples. On a recent evaluation, it seems that all of these places are suffering office vacancies to some degree and their retail properties have more vacancies than what you'd hope for, if you underwrote the deals using typical industry standards. Most of the properties on the fringe of being in trouble of generally well located assets, in reasonable condition, but in markets where genuine softness in their regional economies is taking a toll. The question is, — is TARP the answer?

I have a real issue with funds being used for the automakers unless and until certain conditions are put into place, especially ones that caused them to become non-competitive with other world class manufacturers. In the case of commercial real estate developers and owners, I have no such reservations. In fact, I completely support the idea that if banks and Fannie/Freddie cannot make liquidity available at a reasonable rate, then TARP should be available to help maintain the commercial real estate industry. This industry has no history of the kinds of arrogant and excessive behaviors that doomed the automakers. That TARP has failed to stabilize credit markets so far is undeniable, but to permit one more sector of the economy to fail would be a true loss for a key component of employment and an engine for future economic growth.

It may turn out to be good, that new starts in commercial properties are way off of their historic patterns, because as the economy rebounds, existing properties will be the beneficiary of job growth and demand patterns will return to positive. Covering commercial real estate with TARP is just the beginning of that process, and represents an opportunity for Paulson and Bernanke to finally get something right.

Jack Kern is the managing director of Kern Investment Research and is preparing to enjoy new year's and the upcoming presidential inauguration by renting out his house for $250,000/week and then running off to the islands to escape the January chill. He can reached at 301-601-1900. Happy Holidays and may 2009 bring you and your family peace, love,  happiness and a winning lottery ticket.

When reporting on multifamily finance in the 2000s, I came across a common refrain from desperate mortgage bankers again and again: “There is a surplus of money chasing a limited amount oKeatFoong
f product.” This intensely competitive environment—for lenders, that is—went on for years, seemingly never-ending. But the capital “surplus” environment did come to an end.

What Sam Chandan, chief economist of Reis, said recently at the company’s third quarter briefing throws light on the situation. He cited an essay about banking crises. Such a crisis happened, famously, in Japan in the 1980s. The cycle begins thus: There is some sort of initial loosening of credit in the economy. The subsequent great abundance of credit brings about a real estate bubble. Eventually, that bubble bursts and asset prices deflate. The banks' asset values also fall, they cannot lend as much, and a recession occurs.

Indeed, there was much abundance of capital in the multifamily sector during that period, and it was driven in large part by CMBS financing. The point is that multifamily asset values may also have been pushed up by the great availability of credit. There was much talk then of cap rates being squeezed down to ridiculous levels by highly leveraged buyers. The question is, was there also a bubble in multifamily asset prices, and if so, what was the magnitude?

This issue’s report “Apartment Property Prices Have Fallen by 17% Since Last Year” suggests that the numbers at least do not show severe distress yet. Prices per unit/square foot for apartments in the third quarter of 2008 was 17 percent below its peak in the third quarter of 2007, according to Reis. Chandan says that transaction cap rates for apartments in the third quarter have increased by just under 40 basis points, to 5.7 percent. Apartment cap rates had hit a low of 5.4 percent, in the third quarter of 2007. That is the latest report.

Jack Kern
"I think we will see a rebound in the economy partly because of this substantial easing that we've seen from the Fed, but I think it will be delayed. I think we are likely to see clear evidence of this emerging towards the end of the fourth quarter this year and a rebound well under way in the first quarter next year."

Actor Jimmy Stewart, 1949

Seen this movie before?

There have been a lot of questions lately about how the multi-family industry is faring against the backdrop of all of the Federal initiatives. One of the favorite holiday classics is know for this quote:

"Every time a bell rings an angel gets his wings." –ZuZu Bailey,
(c) Frank Capra's "It's a Wonderful Life" 1946

Well, I was at a meeting recently and after a while, the developers in the room suggested to me that every time a bell rings, a banker gets a pinkslip. The lack of available financing is certainly a key part of the problem facing the industry and if you need construction financing, you're really going to hope for some luck in 2009. Let's go the video tape and see where we are now after the most recent Fed announcement:

The Fed funds rate is effectively zero, which ends the bag of tricks that the Fed has, at least as far as the monetary stance goes. While there are other tools available to Ben, he has to be circumspect about what to do next. Here's why – flooding the market with additional liquidity, which might dramatically lower some costs and help inflation isn't going to boost consumer confidence. With consumers feeling dour and at the lowest levels in over 40 years, a quick Fed announcement isn't going to matter. That may explain why the Fed response, measured as it is, will continue to be targeted towards the little things that in the end make a difference. Lowering mortgage rates, pushing for lower consumer debt rates, with credit card interest being a problem, pushing banks to loan to one another again and finally cleaning up the credit default swaps, collaterized mortgage obligations and other financial instruments will be the priority going into 2009.

What does this new reality mean for the multifamily industry?

Renters will rent longer and rent increases on new leases in place will be higher, especially as the mortgage meltdown finds its way into Chapter 2.

I spoke to a banker yesterday, who for the most part wasn't happy about the economy and how it's affected traditional real estate business, but he was optimistic that a new order of sorts will replace what has proven to fail in the past. The days of cold, hard Wall Street greed have come to an end.

Nick <http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0502766/> : Hey look, mister – we serve hard drinks in here for men who want to get drunk fast, and we don't need any characters around to give the joint "atmosphere". Is that clear, or do I have to slip you my left for a convincer?
(c) Frank Capra's "It's a Wonderful Life" 1946
Wall Street should be a different place next year. The Fed will be certain of that.
 

As the holidays approach, observers of the economy are likely in anything but a festive spirit. A rash of recent news has proven that the turmoil is far from over, and the situation may well become significantly worse before it gets better.

The auto industry’s requested bailout remains in limbo at the moment, with President Bush saying he might use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to aid automakers in avoiding bankruptcy. Bush would not provide a timeline for such a plan, which would involve providing the Big Three auto companies with money from TARP, which was originally earmarked to prop up ailing Wall Street firms and banks when enacted in September. A proposed $14 billion loan for GM, Ford and Chrysler remained in a state of uncertainty after failing to clear the Senate last week. Bush said that while a failure of the Big Three “could be devastating for the economy,” he would not say for sure whether TARP funds would definitely be used, calling the option only “a possibility.”

Meanwhile, the housing market continues to struggle, and the latest sign of just how bad things have gotten came with the release of a report saying that American homeowners will lost a collective $2 trillion or more by the end of the year. The report, by real estate Website Zillow.com, claimed that home values dropped 8.4 percent year-over-year during the first three quarters of 2008, as compared to the same quarters in 2007. And some 11.7 million homeowners are now “underwater” on their mortgage, meaning that escalated interest rates and plummeting home values have conspired to make the total they owe on a home loan more than the home’s current worth.

Speaking of loans, the credit markets remain tight across all types of lending. Household debt actually fell in the third quarter, the first quarterly drop ever. According to a Federal Reserve report, household debt fell by 0.8 percent during the quarter, as cash strapped consumers are finding it harder to borrow and are pulling back on spending accordingly. Though such fiscal restraint may sound prudent, the decline in buying will likely be a further drag on the economy.

And in another sign of a lack of financial confidence, investors are pulling their money from mutual funds, withdrawing about $2.8 billion from equity based mutuals during the week ending December 10th. The previous week saw $12.1 billion drained from such funds, according to a report by TrimTabs Investment Research. The continued withdrawals indicate both that investors have lost confidence, and that many out of work investors have had to dip into their investments, neither of which is a positive sign.

Perhaps the new year will bring with it good financial tidings. But considering the scope of the current problems, better days are likely further away than the next turn of the calendar.
       

Jack Kern
This is an unprecedented time, as far as I can tell. In the height of the holiday season, when thoughts usually turn to snow angels, twinkling lights and shopping deals, the reverie usually reserved for festive parties has been stolen and replaced by endless news about layoffs, failed federal policy responses and endemic fears about losing one's job. Recently it has come to light that the TARP initiative has failed to provide any modest level of relief for the property sector because the banks taking advantage of the funds haven't followed through on loosening credit standards to average borrowers. Although the TED spread has fallen a bit, indicating banks are starting to trust one another again, generally credit markets aren't in much better shape than when this mess got started.

I guess the only thing left to do is to laugh. What else is there?

The former Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (I won't embarrass him by mentioning his name here) recently admitted to being overly optimistic and spinning the realtors message so it wouldn't be so obvious that home sales were in the tank. I guess they didn't think the loss of 125,000 realtors in their ranks wasn't going to be noticed, any more than the complete lack of home sales in, well, the entire United States. At least he finally came clean on what had become an industry joke about their economic releases. Now, unfortunately his replacement is onto the same tact, spreading meaningless information based on their wishlist. It just makes you wonder.

Sam Zell, one of this country's most successful owner/developers announced recently that the housing recovery should begin by next spring. Well if Sam Zell said it, by golly it better happen. We all know how powerful he is and I'd to see what happens if it doesn't. I just imagine Sam selling his interest in the Chicago Cubs (I don't get the Cubs/Sox rivalry, but that's for another column) and then buying the National Association of Realtors. I'm sure he'd streamline that organization, get rid of the management bloat, and then figure out how to get home sales moving again. He's probably change to the name again, maybe calling it Equity Association of Realtors, but that's for him to decide. You can just imagine Sam's bear cub likeness, pointing his finger at you, like Uncle Sam (coincidence, I think not) as their new logo too.

Lastly, I wanted to talk about Ben Bernanke. Poor Ben, who has been beaten up pretty unceremoniously by the Congress, by the Treasury Department and now by the press. With people screaming about what the Fed should do, things are bleak. Well, the bag of tricks is empty and the magic smoke isn't working. It is likely that the Fed funds rate will be discounted again to it's lowest level in the history of the Fed, which makes us a lot like Japan, where deflation and the unwillingness to write down assets caused their economy to essentially collapse. In fact Japan still hasn't really recovered. So adding Fed liquidity to the markets isn't going to matter very much. I wonder what Ben wants in his stocking this year?

If you have time, buy a car. The deals are amazing right now and you can save a ton and help the economy at the same time. Sure, it's probable you won't be able to get parts or get it fixed, but I don't think you're in any danger of seeing a lot of same models in the future. And for as long as you can keep the thing running, you'll be feeling very patriotic! Who knows, maybe that GM or Ford will become a collectors item and you can make your investment back on ebay sometime in the future?
 
Jack Kern is the Managing Director of Kern Investment Research and planning to be out of town during the presidential inauguration, since 5 million people are going to descend on the nation's capital and wreak havoc with traffic, and all of the beer, pool and chili joints he likes to visit. He can be reached at jkern80124@gmail.com or 301-601-1900.

Jack Kern
There is a distinction in examining renter trends that often gets overlooked. One of the smartest guys in this business is a research guru at a large owner, who bristles at the idea that there are "shadow markets." In conversations about rental markets, and rightly so, I believe, the point is made that in most metropolitan areas, there have always been renters in a wide variety of housing types and that no one is hiding in the shadows, even though that term has gained great popularity.

A leading expert in monitoring markets nationally, Greg Willett, MPF wunderkind and the sultan of statistics, observed recently that these shadow markets are showing up now in lots of places, as full competition to professionally managed apartment units. In the past, Greg would have told you it wasn't much of a factor, but now perhaps they're making great inroads as rental alternatives. The current pricing of these alternatives is a drag on professionally priced rents and the individual owners are beginning to make their presence felt. While they may not be good at delivering service, the greatly reduced rates more than compensate for the lack of amenities and sometime location challenges.

Historically, individually owned rental units rarely raise rents and operate in a somewhat irrational way. It is unlikely, based on behavioral finance studies, that these owners will change over time by very much. As the available inventory of these alternatives has skyrocketed, professionally managed ownership has to get better at luring that elusive renter.

The levels of traffic in most properties is reportedly down, sufficiently lower that the weakness isn't just attributable to seasonality, but to real softness in demand. The watch word for the present is management, but for those of us around in the developer fee fueled 1980s, it's certainly a contrast to prior periods. In most markets nationally, the long wait for Gen Y to come riding into town to rent vacant luxury units has proven to be painful. With little economic vibrancy, and lots of layoffs,  miscalculated employment growth and the instability in the industrial base, now is actually a better time to be a renter than an apartment owner.

While this trend is expected to be relatively short lived, the fact remains that treating residents well, and getting renewals down systematically is one of the keys to future net operating income. Expect major owners to report weakness and challenged earnings until the Fed policy response to the housing debacle begins to take hold. In the meantime, hopefully the Apartment Whisperer will be able to work hard to coax people out of the shadow inventory and into professionally managed buildings. As they said, "you got to treat them real nice and then they'll come to you."

KeatFoong
By Keat Foong, Executive Editor

When reporting on multifamily finance in the 2000s, I came across a common refrain from desperate mortgage bankers again and again: “There is a surplus of money chasing a limited amount of product.” This intensely competitive environment—for lenders, that is—went on for years, seemingly never ending. But the capital “surplus” environment did come to an end.

What Sam Chandan, chief economist of Reis, said recently at the company’s third quarter briefing throws light on the situation. He cited an essay about banking crises. Such a crisis happened, famously, in Japan in the 1980s. The cycle begins thus: There is some sort of initial loosening of credit in the economy. The subsequent great abundance of credit brings about a real estate bubble. Eventually, that bubble bursts and asset prices deflate. The banks' asset values also fall, they cannot lend as much, and a recession occurs.

Indeed, there was much abundance of capital in the multifamily sector during that period, and it was driven in large part by CMBS financing. The point is that multifamily asset values may also have been pushed up by the great availability of credit. There was much talk then of cap rates being squeezed down to ridiculous levels by highly leveraged buyers. The question is, was there also a bubble in multifamily asset prices, and if so, what was the magnitude?

This issue’s report “Apartment Property Prices Have Fallen by 17% Since Last Year” suggests that the numbers at least do not show severe distress yet. Prices per unit/square foot for apartments in the third quarter of 2008 was 17 percent below its peak in the third quarter of 2007, according to Reis. Chandan says that transaction cap rates for apartments in the third quarter have increased by just under 40 basis points, to 5.7 percent. Apartment cap rates had hit a low of 5.4 percent, in the third quarter of 2007. That is the latest report.

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