The Fed announced a quarter percentage point reduction of its key interest rate today–which may be the last rate cut for awhile.

The federal funds rate is now 2 percent.

The Fed’s statement mentioned–as previous ones had–that rate cuts were meant to invigorate the economy.

However, because the statement did not include the phrase "downside risks to growth remain," which had been present in previous statements, and also said that "uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high," some sources, including CNNMoney.com, are forecasting the aggressive rate cut era is over.

And maybe that’s best, since some sources, including Forbes, reported earlier that the Fed was expected to cut its target overnight interbank loan rate from 2.25 percent to 2 percent–but that more cuts may not be enough to heal the weakened economy.

Since September, the Fed has cut the federal funds target rate by three percentage points–it was 5.25 percent. But the effect has been questionable.

Just today, the Commerce Department said that we’re facing a slowing economy.

The economy didn’t stop in the first quarter–export sales and inventory helped offset housing and other issues and let the gross domestic product increase at a 0.6 percent annual rate. But concern about its future remains.

A few reasons analysts are questioning the rate cuts:

  • Since the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting,
    the cost of acquiring funds has risen by 0.33
    percentage points. Banks remain nervous to lend to each other, Bloomberg says.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages–more tied to the federal funds rate than fixed-rate loans–have fallen just a half a percentage point since September; according to U.S. News and World Report, investors are still leery about buying into the foreclosure-plagued mortgage market, so rates needed to rise to attract buyers.

Higher rates don’t help homeowners struggling to make their payments. But U.S. News and World Report says the Fed’s cuts have had some influence.

"The truth is that if
[the Fed] hadn’t cut [the federal funds rate], adjustable rates would
be even higher…and the problems would be much more severe," Gus Faucher, the director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Economy.com, said in the article.

Maybe. Maybe not. Do you think that’s true?

Tell us what you think by posting below…

Companies and entire cities–such as Chicago, which banned all indoor smoking, starting on January 1, 2008–are encouraging smokers to put out their cigarettes. Could apartment owners be next?

Maybe. Citywide smoking bans in places like New York and Chicago have been successful–just last week, Chicago Health Commissioner Dr. Terry Mason said the ban, which is not even six months old, had been accepted across the city.

Companies are also trying to get smokers to quit because it reduces their health insurance costs–although for some companies, it’s a touchy subject.

Last week, the 16,000-strong Tribune Company recently rescinded on a plan to
charge its 600 smokers an additional $100 a month for insurance, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The Tribune Company is now considering a program that would offer employees benefits for stopping smoking. And it’s not alone.

More than half of 453 large employers surveyed in a report by the National Business Group on Health
and consulting firm Watson Wyatt Worldwide are offering financial incentives to help employees be more healthy; that includes incentives to quit smoking, Newsweek says.

Twenty-four percent more employers say they’ll offer health improvement bonuses in 2009.

And now, apartments may be getting in on the anti-smoking action. According to ABC News, California is considering making all its rental housing smoke-free.

  • New legislation being considered by a state senate committee that would allow rental housing owners to ban smoking on all or part of their property.
  • The bill–proposed by State Senator Alex Padilla–would let renters smoke within their units until the lease they signed prior to the bill’s passing expired.

And then: No more puffing.

If renters do, it would be considered a breach of the agreement–and they could be evicted.

Regulating unit use if it affects the unit–i.e., no repainting walls, no knocking them downs–is one thing, but should property owners and managers have the right to regulate what residents do inside the unit with their body?

Perhaps. Smoking can discolor walls, leave an odor and require repainting, which adds an expense for the owner.

But a large part of the restaurant smoking ban opposition has revolved around personal rights–and when a renter is paying to reside in a unit for a given amount of time, do we have the right to limit what they do in that unit (within reason)?

What do you think–would a smoking ban for rental properties be fair, or wouldn’t it?

Back in March, we reported that the prolonged housing decline hadn’t affected the popularity of home improvement shows–in fact, TLC was coming out with six new ones this season.

And now, the Chicago Tribune says that while consumers may not want to buy homes, we still want to play with them.

Take for example, "Build-a-lot," a video game that presents players with home-building challenges including balancing cash flow to meeting the mayor’s demands to ordering supplies.

Created for the Windows set by HipSoft, the game was released late last year–when the slump was in full effect. It has since been tweaked for Mac users like myself and has become one of the most downloaded games on Apple’s site, according to the Trib.

It’s funny. Last week, information from the National Association of Realtors indicated that we sure don’t want to buy homes–sales of condos and existing single-family homes fell by 2 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million units.

According to the Commerce Department, new home sales dropped to their lowest level in 16 years last month.

And we’re not building them either: U.S. homebuilder starts fell 11.9 percent to their lowest rate since 1991 in March, the Commerce Department said this month.

But that’s the real world. Give us a virtual version, and suddenly we’re all about building again. Does that imply we’re really land developer-lovers at heart?

Maybe; maybe not. Consider Hasbro, maker of the legendary property sale-and-swap game Monopoly. The company’s first-quarter net income increased 14 percent; revenue was up 13 percent to $704.2 million.

But, according to The Wall Street Journal, that’s due largely to Hasbro’s international market success; like much of the housing market, the company’s global operations have helped offset domestic losses.

U.S. and Canadian earnings, in fact, dropped 18 percent. Then again, Monopoly could be considered a commercial real estate-based game: But are high-priced residential property sites like Park Place feeling just a little too realistic for U.S. consumers right now? 

Perhaps that’s why they seem to prefer the physical task of constructing a residence, via virtual games like Build-a-lot, to the riskier prospect of snatching up investment property land …

Forget concern about the U.S. sliding into a recession. According to a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors, many states are already in a recession–and as the July 1 fiscal year approaches, the situation may get worse, the New York Times says.

The National Conference of State Legislatures report, released Friday, said that "whether
or not the national economy is in recession– a subject of ongoing
debate — is almost beside the point for some states."

The funding shortfalls are so severe in some areas of the country, it looks like–even once the housing slump does noticeably improve–states may be dealing with the housing market fallout for years to come.

Housing has already taken a toll on the economy (which has, in turn, taken a toll on housing): Because home equity is dropping, many homeowners don’t want to invest in their home, so furniture and appliance sales are declining.

At the same time, people are spending less in general because higher gas and food costs are eating up their cash. 

And the slowed economy is hurting tax revenue–some states are really suffering, such as:

  • Delaware: The state’s funding has a $69 million gap this year.
  • California: The report predicted California would have a $16 billion budget shortfall over
    the next two years.

Florida, too, doesn’t expect its revenue situation to improve quickly because of how long its housing slump has been going on, the Times says.

And Florida is not alone. Sixteen states reported budget shortages because taxes had come in less than earlier estimates by mid-April; that’s twice the number of states that posted a deficit six months prior.

And the upcoming fiscal year may not be much better. Twenty-three states are currently reporting a total of $26 billion in budget shortages, according to the NCSL–more than two-thirds say they’re worried about budgets for next year.

With good reason: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
said last week that 27 states are reporting projected budget shortfalls equaling at least $39 billion next year.

We’ve been so focused on improving the housing market, it’s possible we’ve lost sight of its far-reaching effects–but make no mistake, dealing with sharply reduced state budgets on the heels of a prolonged housing slump is not going to make life easy.

In fact, as the economy slows and we try to climb out of a housing decline–and potential national recession–we’re going to need those state programs and aid more than ever.

No one wants to see education or other necessary programs suffer. But there are even more pressing problems, such as shelter. The rising number of foreclosures in the U.S. alone are going to
increase the need for housing–some of it will need to be affordable or
aid-based.

So what can we do now to help buffer the housing decline’s effect on state funding? Is it time to reconfigure and trim budgets know, anticipating a further decline in tax revenue? Or should the Fed be addressing the problem and increasing state financial allocations?

What do you think?

The government’s new home sales and price results are in–and they don’t seem to indicate that the housing slump might finally be ending.

According to the Commerce Department, new home sales fell in March to their lowest level in 16 years–and median home prices fell by the biggest amount in almost 40 years.

  • New home sales declined by 8.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
    526,000 units. That’s the slowest new home sales pace since 1991.
  • Sales were down last month in all regions–most prominently in the Northeast, where they fell 19.4 percent. In the West, sales dropped by 12.9 percent; in the Midwest, they fell by 12.5 percent. In the South, sales fell by 4.6 percent.

And that wasn’t the only dour economic news today:

  • In March, big-ticket manufactured goods orders to factories dropped for the third consecutive month–the longest straight period of decline since the 2001 recession, according to the New York Times.
  • Yet unemployment benefit applications dropped by
    33,000 to 342,000.

The fact that demand for
durable goods fell by 0.3 percent last month reinforced the
general feeling that the softening economy is starting to really hurt
manufacturers.

It also reinforced the belief that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession: Orders haven’t declined for three months in a row since
early 2001–when the U.S. was entering its last recession, the Times said.

But wait! Another news item today indicated things are far, far worse than any durable goods or housing news might imply: People are starting to forgo their daily Starbucks fix.

The Seattle-based coffee retailer forecast its first decline in annual profits in eight years. And if you don’t see a connection between that and housing, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz does: Calling this economic environment "the weakest in our
company’s history," Schultz said that Starbucks’ California and Florida markets–which account for one third of its revenue in the U.S.–especially suffered, according to BBCNews.

Those are, of course, also two of the states hardest hit in the housing slump–and, thus, Starbucks markets that "have been especially impacted by the
effects of the downturn in the housing market," the company said.

The company is trying some new things to correct the situation, which the CEO said will show
results in the future–such as the introduction of the new Pike Place
Roast coffee. (Which would explain why I was handed a card to get free
cups each Wednesday for the next month the last time I was in a
Starbucks–along with a card for a friend.)

But seriously, even Starbucks? This is the chain that, in the past year, doubled its number of stores to more than 15,000 in 44 countries, according to the Times?

Starbucks is a lifestyle for some consumers–a daily ritual. Or was.

According to Schultz, …"our customers are reducing the
frequency of their visits to our stores–due to the economic pressures
they are feeling."

First we got saddled with a high foreclosure rate; now less cash for creamy lattes? If that’s not a sign of a recession, what is?

 

Single-family homes may be taking a beating–but multifamily affordable housing isn’t.

Just ask Fannie Mae. According to The Wall Street Journal, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working to make up for the lenders who have pulled back from project funding, especially in the multifamily affordable housing market.

A spokesman for Fannie Mae said that the multifamily market’s low delinquency rates–a scant one-tenth of 1 percent in January–makes it a good bet for the government-backed agency, according to the Journal.

Fannie and Freddie aren’t the only ones working to increase affordable housing. As the subprime housing crisis continues, states–including New York–are spending more money on affordable housing programs.

In fact, most New York housing programs will receive an infusion next year, according to Newsday, including:

  • Access to Home, an organization that gives property owners funds to increase disabled residents’ accessibility options, is slated to get $14 million. Last year, it received $5 million.
  • A public benefit corporation created in 1985 called the Affordable Housing Corporation will receive $45 million to help low- to moderate-income residents get homes–a $20 million increase from what it got last year.
  • The Housing Trust Fund Corporation, which last year received $29 million, will get $73 million for programs that sponsor new construction and pre-existing housing rehabilitation for affordable housing. (Developers interested in applying for the funds can here.)

However, not all states are making a push to fund affordable living. It’s not that they’re against it; but at least one state–Massachusetts–is on the verge of changing the way it’s done.

The state could soon pass an amendment that would require large affordable housing builders to pay construction workers higher wages–raising overall construction costs on some projects, the Boston Globe reported recently.

Developers would have to pay workers a "prevailing wage"–which means the Massachusetts Department of Labor determines minimum hourly rates on projects involving 75 or more units or projects with $25 million or more in overall development costs. Those rates can be twice as high as a project’s nonunion worker hourly rates.

Government projects already require the prevailing wage. Projects during 2002 to 2006 that paid the wage spent 34 percent more–roughly $60,000–on each unit, according to a 2007 study by the Massachusetts Housing Partnership.

As the economy sinks, higher wages will likely help builders; but it could cost the community by reducing the amount of housing being built.

One wonders if Massachusetts has really thought the wage hike through. Residential construction employment has declined in the past year–so will making higher construction costs mandatory for large affordable housing projects really help workers in the long run?

It’s a delicate balance–workers are battling the same higher food and gas costs affordable housing recipients are–but overprice our projects, and they’ll be out of work…

New information from the National Association of Realtors and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight released today provides a fresh look at the housing crisis–but not necessarily a clear one.

The OFHEO said today that home prices grew 0.6 percent from January to
February.

  • In the 12-month period ending in
    February, prices fell 2.4 percent.
  • Prices increased 2.2 percent a seasonally adjusted
    basis in New England, rose 0.3 percent in the Pacific region and fell 0.6 percent In the Mountain region.

NAR found that existing home sales fell slightly in March and prices increased a little compared to the month before–but were still lower than last year’s levels.

  • The national median existing-home price sunk 7.7 percent from
    a year ago–the second largest year-to-year drop.
  • The average March home sale price increased slightly–to $200,700–from February’s $195,600 median price.
  • Sales of condominiums and existing single-family homes dropped by 2
    percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million
    units.
  • Compared with 2007, sales were down 19.3 percent.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun is still saying sales should rise in the second half of the year–but he isn’t sounding quite as confident about how much these results proved that will be the case.

According to NAR’s press release, the market is performing
"unevenly." 

“Though mortgage rates are at historically low levels, some
borrowers are facing restrictive lending practices in declining
markets,” Yun said.  “At the same time, many buyers continue to bide
their time with a large number of homes to choose from, while other
potential buyers remain on the sidelines.”

What do you think? Will the housing market really start to turnaround–and remain in a recovery–as early as this summer? Or will it take much longer?

It’s spring, which according to the New York Times, means thousands of recent college grads will soon be hitting the rental market looking for an apartment … and many will be in for a shock.

There is no rental market quite like New York City. As a result, there’s no landlord like a New York City landlord.

In some markets, rental property owners may be having a hard time
filling units as the economy slows. Vacant units have caused
foreclosures in some markets, such as Boston, where multifamily
foreclosures rose 27 percent from February 2007 to 2008, according to
the Boston Herald.

But New York’s rental market remains strong.

With $3,000 average monthly rents in some neighborhoods, its market is pricey–and also large. Because home selling prices are so high in New York, 75 percent of the city’s housing stock are rental properties.

Perhaps that’s why the rental market is so strong: Vacancy rates in New York City hovered
around 1 percent for the third consecutive year in 2007, according to real estate broker Citi Habitats.

The tight apartment supply caused rents to rise 5.5 percent on the most expensive residential market in the U.S., Bloomberg said.

With that kind of demand, landlords can call all the shots–and do:

  • Qualifying for an apartment can be tricky. New York landlords only want residents who make 40 times the monthly rent amount, according to the Times–which, for a $2,000 apartment, would be an $80,000 annual salary. The average 2006 recent grad salary? According to census data, $35,6000.
  • Roommates may not even help. Many renters take on roommates to help buffer the high rent cost–but while some landlords will take the combined incomes of several roommates, some won’t.
  • Co-signer requirements are even stricter. If a renter doesn’t make 40 times their rent, a guarantor–such as a parent–needs to step in. The guarantor must make 80 times the monthly rent amount.

Once you qualify, getting into the unit isn’t cheap. First, there’s a security deposit, which can be the first and last month’s rent–which in New York, can be $6,000 for that $3,000-a-month place we mentioned earlier.

Many renters also must pay a broker’s fee; it can cost more than $10,000 just to get inside your new unit.

Some landlords and apartment brokers may find the market is changing due to sites like Craigslist, which offers no-fee and fee-based broker listings. But Alicia Schwartz, director of howtorentinnyc.com, doesn’t think the broker system will become obsolete.

“At the height of the rental season, landlord listings change from hour
to hour,” she told the Times. “And the only ones who talk to landlords hour to
hour are brokers, not listing services.”

New York’s housing market has fared better than much of the country; although some of the boroughs recently saw price declines, across the city, home prices rose 28 percent earlier this year, according to the Real Estate Board of New York.

But the city isn’t immune to the national credit crisis. As mortgages become harder to get and less residents are able to buy, the city’s rental market is likely to strengthen–and space will always be at a premium in Manhattan.

True, New York is a unique rental housing example; but are there things we all could learn from the way its property owners and managers do business?

The rumors were true: President Bush today nominated the head of the Small Business Administration, Steve
Preston, to lead the Department of Housing and Urban
Development.

And the media had a ton to say about it: The Associated Press, New York Times and Bloomberg all covered the news almost as soon as it broke.

John Kerry (D-Mass.), chairman of the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, also reacted quickly to the news.

"I’ve worked with Steven Preston as the SBA Administrator for almost two years now and I’ll be sorry to see him go," Kerry said in a statement. "Mr. Preston inherited an agency in disarray, and he’s worked hard to right its course and to improve relationships with Congress. We may have some differences on policy, but he’s always been professional, responsive, and dedicated to the mission."

But what about former HUD chief Alphonso R. Jackson?

Jackson stepped down voluntarily in March amid allegations he had used favoritism in his position.

The New York Times reports that an Atlanta developer–whose company has paid Jackson more than $250,000 in fees since 2001 for work, which the company’s lawyer says he did before joining the government–received a $127 million contract in 2007 as part
of a joint venture to rebuild a New Orleans public housing project.

So Jackson is out; a new chief is in. But what’s next?

Jackson is planning "a few months of rest and relaxation," according to a HUD spokesman. The federal government, on the other hand, is planning to investigate Jackson.

And we’ll be watching to see what it finds. With the current state of housing–not good–it’s more important than ever that answers to questions of possible deal-cutting and favoritism charges be found quickly.

HUD has taken on a bigger role as the slump continued–so we need it to be working up to its fullest potential. And we need it to keep doing more.

Let’s hope Preston is up for the challenge…

Two news items today indicate the economy is in real trouble–and may be approaching an even tougher time in the near future.

  • The Fed’s Beige Book indicates the economy is getting worse. The Fed said that "economic conditions have weakened since the last report." Nine districts
    reported a lesser economic pace; the other three said activity was
    "mixed or steady."

The culprit? Housing: According to Bloomberg, because of the "worst housing contraction in a quarter
century," growth declined to a 0.6 annual pace from October to
December–a reduction from a 4.9 percent pace during the three
prior months.

  • Merrill Lynch lost $1.96 billion in the first quarter. Cringe-worthy news from Merrill–one of the firms that has been hardest hit by housing issues–included it posting $1.5 billion in collateralized debt obligation-linked
    writedowns and $3.1
    billion in Alt-A residential mortgage-related writedowns.

That brings Merrill’s writedown total to $27.4 billion for three quarters in a row.

And it’s causing Merrill to cut about 10 percent of its workforce–which fits right in with the Labor Department’s announcement today that it appears unemployment is rising. In the week ended April 12, unemployment benefit claims rose by 17,000.

In all: Not a great snapshot of a healthy economy, is it?

Speculation still exists about whether or not the country is headed toward a recession–some say we’re already in one–and things are not looking good.

If firms like Merrill Lynch aren’t through with seeing mortgage-related writedowns, unemployment is rising and the overall economy is slowing in more areas than it isn’t, can we still pull out of the tailspin to avoid a recession?

Those economic stimulus checks should be on their way soon … will that provide enough of a burst to consumer spending to save the day?

Or are we doomed to stand by and watch while our economy contracts further–and further–until it is officially declared as being in a recession?

Share your opinion by posting below …

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