In recent months, a number of individuals have called for increased regulation of Wall Street–and it looks like we might get it.

After the recent government bailout of Bear Stearns, it appeared regulation was more necessary than ever for the financial industry. And today, the government announced a new plan to do just that. Although it’s been criticized for being too lax, it’s at least a start.

News also broke today that the U.K. and U.S. are teaming up to better monitor the international banking system, according to the Financial Times.

But why stop there?

Mortgage Mayhem

According to the Times, one major reason for implementing such a group was the growing concern  that the ratings agencies didn’t really consider the exposure of mortgage-based products or a housing drop-off.

That helped get us where we are today–in the midst of a financial crunch and a housing crisis, which both have fed off each other as both situations intensified.

Almost all the presidential candidates have called for greater transparency in the mortgage market; so has Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

The new financial industry plan proposes getting rid of overlapping state and federal regulators, according to BusinessWeek, and allowing the federal bank more liberties in looking at investment bank and brokerage firms’ books.

And yet, as the housing crisis rages on, there is a clear need for regulation in that industry, as well.

Appraisals that Add Risk

Take, for instance, any of the lawsuits in the past year that involve home appraisals. One was just filed in the Los Angeles Superior Court against KB homes in February by Debbie Bolden, her husband and neighbors.

  • According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the suit alleges that KB Home (Bolden’s builder), Countrywide Financial Corp. (her lender) and affiliated businesses and two appraisers conspired to overstate home prices using fixed appraisals. The plaintiffs are seeking compensatory and punitive damages.
  • Bolden feels she may have paid more than $60,000 over the home’s market price. And the lawsuit could get much bigger–the plaintiffs are trying to get class-action status for all California KB Home buyers who used Countrywide to finance home purchases from Aug. 1, 2005 to July 31, 2006.

The truth is, buyers who agree to use internal appraisers, lenders and other parties are asking for trouble–and so are companies who offer to provide them. Even those working with the most legitimate appraisers and most well-meaning lenders are opening themselves up to criticism–and potential lawsuits–as the slump deepens.

Yet some still do. Buyers are losing home value as prices slide across the country, and they’re not happy about it: Expect them to get more frustrated and more litigious until the market improves.

There have been some positive signs that the market is moving toward better practices–Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for instance, agreed earlier this month to only purchase mortgages from lenders that use independent appraisers.

Part of a deal with New York Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, the new rules–which go into effect next year–also prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-friendly mortgage brokers and real estate agents from choosing appraisers.

The agencies also will front $24 million to establish the Independent Valuation Protection Institute to register consumer and appraiser complaints and monitor enforcement of the new rules.

The new agency rules should help the industry–but regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alone won’t fix everything. Maybe it’s time for additional lenders, mortgage companies and others to become more independent; it’s definitely time for them to employ appraisers with no connection to their business or its success. Even appearing to have influence over an appraisal is a dangerous position to be in these days.

After all, sketchy loans and predatory lenders helped get us into the current housing situation; ignore that problem, and we’ll never fully get out of it. 

Multifamily property and
hotel loans edged the overall commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate up in February, according to Fitch Ratings–and the rise included a number of newly delinquent loans.

Commercial mortgage-backed securities may not have had as bad a year as anything connected to a residential mortgage had–but they’ve still had a hard time, according to Reuters.

And it’s all connected to the housing market: The commercial-backed securities met with concern that less-than-secure underwriting practices in 2007 may have made sketchier loans that wouldn’t be able to weather a U.S. recession. As the economy declined further, that fear increased.

And, as a result, $130 million in newly delinquent multifamily loans–which include apartment buildings–really influenced the increase in Fitch’s delinquency index, according to Managing Director Susan Merrick.

"Multifamily delinquencies continue to be overrepresented in the index, now comprising 60 percent of all delinquent loans." (Despite the fact they only represent 14.6 percent of the Fitch-rated universe.)

A couple of things to compare that to:

  • Office building-secured loans are 30.4 percent of all properties
    in the Fitch world and represented 11 percent of the overall
    delinquency index last month (even though office delinquencies were
    down by 1.1 percent last month).
  • Retail loans made up 15.2 percent of the delinquency index.

Fitch’s index measures loans that are at least 60 days delinquent in the $562 billion Fitch rated portfolio, a total of approximately 42,000 loans.

Delinquent multifamily loans reached $1 billion at the end of last month, a 14.5 percent increase from January 2008.

As this Las Vegas Review Journal article from two weeks ago illustrates, it’s a situation renters are all too familiar with: Across the country, many are being kicked out of their homes with no notice because their landlords failed to keep up with their payments and went into foreclosure.

If that trend continues–more landlords and loans entering into delinquency–it could have a huge affect on the housing market. Could the need for rental multifamily units increase? And should the industry be preparing for that possibility now? Or could that spur home sales, which might offer suddenly displaced renters more security at what is becoming each month a more reasonable cost?

What do you think?

The Post-World War II generation is about to become the largest segment of Americans ever to age at one time, according to a recent Chicago Sun-Times article. In fact, 83 million boomers are expected to hit retirement age within the next 11 years.

That’s a lot of people hitting a new life stage–and undoubtedly, many of them will seek new living options, which could have a huge effect on the housing market.

Some will seek single-family homes in communities designed to offer seniors social activities; others who are perhaps not in the strongest health may seek out assisted care facilities, which offer a variety of living options from the very independent to the more medically supervised.

Senior retirement communities–which we’ve written about previously–have been a growing market in recent decades because they offer affordable living with social programming for the post-retirement crowd.

Take, for example, Shea Homes, a large U.S. builder that the Chicago Tribune reports feels Boomers are looking for communities that offer a positive environmental effect. Shea’s banking on it with its new Victoria Gardens community, which is announced last month.

The development–located between Orlando and Daytona Beach, Fla.–will feature homes with a carbon footprint 20 to 30 percent less than that of a typical household.

However, not all developers are so confident about the senior market. Although any reports of post-retirement and senior living communities experiencing huge drop-offs are hard to come by– analysts actually say occupancy rates have been the same and facilities have been able to raise prices because of a high demand for such services–some fear that the housing slump could affect that type of multifamily and single-family housing.

The stock market seems to agree. Shares of assisted-living facility operators have fallen in the past year. Shares of the largest U.S. private-pay senior housing provider–Brookdale Senior Living Inc.–declined sharply in the past year.

The stock troubles, AP reports, are due to concern that future customers will delay moving into facilities until the market improves and they can more easily sell their home.

Seniors may be able to delay moving into that cute retirement home, but for those in need of assisted living, the problem is more immediate.

The Social Security Administration estimates about 10,000 boomers a day–on average–will start collecting benefits for the next 20 years. Yet Social Security is still a mess–its trust fund will be needed to make payments by 2017, but the fund will need to spend its assets in 2027 and will be exhausted by 2041, according to Forbes.

Which makes it all a pressing mess for baby boomers: The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to need interest payments this year to fund Medicare patient hospital bills. It could be completely insolvent by 2019.

In that case, could assisted living become the only option for some retirees?

That may depend on how well communities prepare now for the baby boomers’ mass transition from work to retirement.

It doesn’t have to all involve public programs (although they likely will be part of the preparation, too): According to the Sun-Times, Chicago’s getting a number of new homes designed by local builders and area nonprofits for the elderly and disabled, who will have difficulty navigating stairs, exiting the shower and reaching high cabinets.

If senior residence prices and occupancy have stayed steady thus far–even during the housing decline–because demand remained high, doesn’t it make sense that we should focus on this market in the future?

We know that the number of Baby Boomers moving into retirement is set to grow considerably–which will increase demand for senior housing options. So what are we waiting for?

In this week’s continuing festival of new housing data, the Commerce Department released information today that showed new home sales fell last month.

However, the government did offer some good news. And, of course, there also was a bit of bad news in the report:

  • Yes, new home sales fell month-to-month: 1.8 percent last month, hitting a low points not seen since 1995.
  • And yes, home purchases fell in the past year: A total of 30 percent from February 2007.

But–here’s the good news–they didn’t fall as far as some had forecasted.

New home sales dropped to a 590,000 annual pace–but that’s less than some economists had expected, according to Bloomberg, which said new
home sales would decline to a 578,000 annual pace.

And the Commerce Department report held even bigger news: A promising drop in the huge home inventory. It is still large–currently the U.S. has a 9.8 month supply, which is the biggest since 1981–but it’s a little less so than last month.

The number of new homes for sale at the end of
February dropped to 471,000, which indicated that builder incentives and other programs are starting to chip away at the housing supply.

Which is, of course, also chipping away at housing prices–the
median home price fell 2.7 percent last month to $244,100, compared to February 2007. And that, according to some–including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson–is a good thing.

"A correction was inevitable and the sooner we work through it, with a
minimum of disorder, the sooner we will see home values stabilize, more
buyers return to the housing market, and housing will again contribute
to economic growth," Paulson said in a speech this week. "Having stability in housing markets will in turn
contribute to better conditions in credit markets for mortgage-backed
securities."

For months, economists have speculated that buyers are waiting for prices to drop lower before splurging on a new home; which would indicate that prices continuing to lower would be great for sales.

But lower prices also means lower home values–which has caused panic among many homeowners, and is causing lower consumer spending and slowing down the economy. Which begs the question: Even if lower home prices move more properties off the market, is it worth the cost to the overall economy?

It’s a tricky balance–but one Paulson feels is possible.

"As we work our way through this turbulence, our highest priority is
limiting its impact on the real economy," he said. "We must maintain stable,
orderly and liquid financial markets and our banks must continue to
play their vital role of supporting the economy by making credit
available to consumers and businesses. And we must of course focus on
housing, which precipitated the turmoil in the capital markets, and is
today the biggest downside risk to our economy."

Do you feel lower prices–as part of an overall price correction–will help readjust the housing and the financial markets? Or will lower home prices wreak havoc on the economy?

Tell us what you think by posting your opinion below …

On Monday, housing information from the National Association of Realtors offered hope that the housing situation might be turning around. Existing home sales, the organization said, had increased for the first time in seven months.

However, we’re always cautiously optimistic at best–and given the housing data released today, that seems like a solid place to stand. The new data provided further insight, such as:

  • Single-family home prices were down 11.4 percent in January from 2007 levels in 10 major metropolitan areas, according to the
    S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes released Tuesday by New
    York-based Standard & Poor’s.
  • The overall 20-city composite index dropped 10.7 percent from 2007 in January. The January-to-December decrease was 2.4 percent. Miami and Vegas–two areas hardest hit by the housing slump–had the biggest drops.
  • The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said today that home prices fell 3 percent in January from a year ago. Home prices dropped 1.1 percent from December to January; New
    England showed the most severe declines.

Both reports painted a fairly bleak picture. Home prices fell year-on-year, and home prices fell from the month prior.

The new information also showed that the problem is still widespread. Note that one source found the deepest declines in the Southwest and in southern Florida; the other found home price problems were biggest in the Northeast.

A number of news outlets today, such as the Chicago Tribune, noted the possibility–based on yesterday’s National Association of Realtors data–that the housing slump might finally be turning around.(Although most were also quick to note it was too soon to tell.) Wall Street even got a boost from the news.

However, given today’s reports, it doesn’t seem like we should be celebrating just yet.

Because–in addition to the weak housing news–the Conference Board said today that the majority of the country doesn’t feel very comfortable with the current economy. People also aren’t too hopeful about its future. The board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped from a revised 76.4 in February to 64.5 in March.

And that news did not give the markets a boost. In fact, it brought the dollar to new daily lows against other currencies, CNNMoney.com reported this morning.

So we wonder: Did yesterday’s news inspire you to hope the housing situation might be about to improve? Did today’s news make you think it won’t? Tell us what you think…

The National Association of Realtors released its latest data today, and although most news reports have focused on the home sale and price information, some missed one of the report’s most important findings: The home inventory may have shrunk.

According to NAR, the U.S. home supply dropped 3 percent at the end of last month to 4.03
million. That’s a 9.6-month supply, compared to the 10.2-month supply that existed at the end of January.

Which is a really, really big deal.

For months, economists have agonized over the bloated housing supply, wondering when it would shrink, and how. Everyone agrees we need to reduce it to spur sales and residential building–right now, the supply of for-sale homes is throwing off any kind of demand for housing that would motivate sales and raise prices–but the general consensus is that buyers are waiting for prices to drop further to get better deals.

But, we all wondered, when would buyers get motivated to make an offer? When would homes start disappearing from that inventory?

It seems that happened last month–which NAR attributes to local price declines and more favorable market conditions–which could be a positive sign that the turnaround has begun. We’ll know more next month.

Multifamily property sales also fared decently in February. NAR also said that existing condo and co-op sales increased 3.7 percent to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units in February from a
downwardly revised 540,000 in January. The rate is 29.7 percent below the
February 2007 pace. 

The median existing condo price last month was $211,700–4.9 percent lower than a year
ago. While that is a decline, it’s less of a drop than the median existing single-family home price, which fell 8.7 percent compared to February 2007.

Now, the NAR is known for being sunny: And recent news reports indicate some industry experts don’t think the housing slump is at all close to being over–the Freddie Mac CEO recently said he thought prices had only dropped a third of how far they eventually would before the decline is over.

But could the recent housing inventory reduction be a sign that the slump has finally bottomed out?

"The higher loan limits for both FHA
and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide
greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated
in the second half of the year."

OK, so NAR thinks so. Do you?

Kids or no kids, you can "recession-proof" your home by buying one in a high-ranked school district–according to a new report from real estate Web site Trulia.com.

The advantage of a good school system isn’t exactly a new thought–it’s one of the first thing parents will ask when viewing a property. But the fact it might help a home retain more value is interesting.

We’re in what many are calling the worst housing slump in 70–or more–years. If elementary education can actually protect a property over the long-term even for homeowners who don’t have any children, well, that’s worth noting.

Curious how your community measures up? Trulia.com yesterday released a list of the 9 best burbs for school systems and property values. The high-rankers are as follows:

  • Boise–Median home price: $317,756
  • Boston–Median home price: $379,000
  • Chicago–Median home price: $334,900
  • Dallas–Median home price: $235,000
  • Los Angeles–Median home price: $559,000
  • New York–Median home price: $1,075,000
  • Philadelphia–Median home price: $199,900
  • San Francisco-Median home price: $799,500
  • Washington, D.C.–Median home price: $434,000

The company compiled information on over 2 million homes and newly launched education rankings on 125,000 schools across the country to complete the list; that’s a bunch of data.

However, it is a little surprising some high-end housing market choices made the list–like San Francisco, which I’m sure has a wonderful school system, but with a home price of almost $800,000, I feel a little strange about calling a value. (Even if homes in the area do retain their equity better than other areas of the U.S.–I’d suspect the fact that land is limited in San Francisco and the fact it’s a highly desirable place to live would also be factors in homes retaining their equity.)

What’s interesting is that the list also includes some suburban options. Take, for example, Chicago: the suburb of LaGrange, Ill. is listed as a top value, with a nearly perfect school rating.

Despite the fact the median home price listed for LaGrange–$440,000–is higher than the urban option, it’s reasonable for a Chicago suburb. I have a friend who relocated her family there from the city several years ago to make room for her first and, eventually, second child–and she found it to be one of the most affordable areas in the region, with good schools, a quaint downtown–overall, a decent deal.

In today’s market of declining equity–the median sales price in 77 of the 150 markets that the National Association of Realtors’ monitors
dropped during the last three months of 2007, compared to 2006, according to NAR–a school-fueled equity boost is a solid selling
point. (And one real estate agents and developers should be stressing
in all marketing materials and sales pitches–as well as something
appraisers and mortgage brokers should be considering.)

But you tell us: How big a buying factor do you really think a strong school district is? Where would you rank it on your list of property selling points?

Standard & Poor’s recently said it thinks the worst of the subprime securities-related writedowns are over.

It’s true, many banks and brokerage firms have already announced their year-end results for 2007. But are we really out of the woods?

S&P doesn’t think so.

According to an article in BusinessWeek, large banks and investment banks in Europe and North America have so far declared $110 billion in writedowns of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) of subprime asset-backed securities (ABS). S&P suggests insurers and banks in the Gulf region and Asia will add $40 billion to that amount.

Past, Present–and Future?

The future of subprime lending looks more positive–lenders are being more careful about issuing loans to subprime lenders; that’s a big change from a year ago.

But many aren’t yet through with subprime lending’s past. ABC News reported that the FBI is currently investigating 17 companies in relation to the subprime collapse for mortgage lending practices. That’s an increase from January, when it was reported 14 mortgage lenders were under investigation.

So it would appear we’re not all quite convinced the subprime collapse is over and done with–or that we’re totally safe from something similar happening again.

Plus some companies still appear to be feeling the subprime effect, such as Morgan Stanley, which this week reported a lower fiscal first-quarter net income than last year–$1.56 billion, or $1.45 a share, compared with $2.67 billion, or $2.51 in the year-earlier period. Net revenue fell 17 percent to $8.32 billion.

It’s unlikely Morgan Stanley would agree that its industry was free and clear of future subprime issues; but its quarterly data did provide some hope: The company’s first-quarter earnings dropped less than had been estimated because record equity sales and trading offset its subprime writedowns, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Home, Sweet, Hard-to-Afford Home

But the biggest argument for not declaring the subprime mess as over involves–surprise–the ongoing housing slump.

As home prices continue to drop, some economists feel it’s hard to say that the subprime situation is over when we can’t really say the same about the housing decline.

“Looking back on this, it will be difficult to say if the worst part of it is the real estate crisis, or whether it’s that effect in the credit markets," Charles Geisst, a Manhattan College finance professor who has written several books about Wall Street’s history, told Fox Business. "It’s natural to ask where a bottom is in the real estate bit, but it’s fruitless."

That’s because in financial markets, one bad day will "clear the smoke," according to Geisst, whereas housing  markets just don’t work that way.

“This is the problem," says Geisst. "People are looking for a bottom that can’t actually come. People always look to an end for a crisis, but we are stuck in this for 2008.”

It probably doesn’t help that while financial results come quarterly, housing reports from the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the Commerce Department and other institutions are released more frequently–in some cases, monthly.

Those watching the housing market get a constant reminder of how bad things are; in the financial market, you at least have a couple of months off in between dour announcements.

But if we’re not looking for one bad day to mark the bottom of the housing slump, what are we looking for? A slightly better month? A two-month consecutive rise in home sales? A certain percentage drop in the housing inventory?

It’s hard to say–but one thing is certain: We’re looking. What do you think would signify the end of the housing slump? What signs are you watching for? Tell us what you think.

The Fed yesterday announced a large rate cut, bringing the rate down to 2.25 percent–and the backlash already has begun.

  • From NPR: "Fed officials are hoping that by making money
    cheaper to borrow, they’ll encourage investment and keep the economy
    from tipping into a recession — if it’s not already there."

Yet, as NPR points out, that’s easier said than done. In fact,
economist Richard Yamarone of Argus Research believes the cuts are a mistake because making money cheaper isn’t going to fix the mortgage losses that have crippled the economy, hurt confidence in lenders and reduced consumer spending.

Which would explain why the other cuts–at first lauded as a magical solution–didn’t seem to have a huge effect on housing or the economy.

  • The Los Angeles Times worries about the rate cut’s impact on investments, noting that "as the housing market has crumbled and stock prices have slumped, many
    individuals and institutions have been hoarding trillions of dollars in
    safe, short-term accounts such as money market mutual funds and bank
    savings certificates."

Only the rate cuts just made those investments less profitable. Because the rate was cut from 3 percent to 2.25 percent, many savers will earn less than 2 percent on their accounts soon, according to the Times–the lowest return since 2005.

"Two percent is not going to make anyone very happy," Brian
Gendreau, a market strategist at ING Investment Management in New York, told the paper.

However, the Fed’s rate cut could possibly give Wall Street a kick, which it desperately needs. The cut could encourage investment into stocks and longer-term bonds–which could all eventually boost the general economy.

  • And more criticism, from America’s heartland: Wall Street may get a push, according to the Indianapolis Star, from the rate cut–but it could at the same time increase fuel and raw material prices as the dollar’s value sinks overseas.

"There’s sort of a two-edge sword when it comes to cutting interest
rates,” Patrick Kiely, head of the Indiana Manufacturers
Association, told the Star. "Energy prices,
natural gas prices and raw material prices have made some pretty
astronomical jumps in the last 90 days, and they’re driven by the
degradation of the dollar based on interest rate cuts.”

That could cause serious problems in Indiana, which has the largest proportion of industrial jobs of any U.S. state.

Rate cuts have become almost standard in the past year; but are they
really helping? The economy has sunk continuously in the past year. The housing market is
still weak. And just Sunday, the government had to bail out Bear
Stearns with a $30 billion credit line.

The problem: If the Fed tries to fix a given sector with a rate cut, that cut is likely to hurt another sector. There is no blanket solution for our current, many-pronged economic situation. One thing didn’t cause the slowdown; one thing won’t fix it.

So we wonder: Was the cut a good idea? What do you think?

Homebuilders may not be feeling great about the residential industry, but the multifamily sector received some good news this week: Construction of housing with two ore more units rose 14.4 percent, and multifamily home groundbreakings increased 14.5 percent.

Yet overall builder sentiment is low, according to the National Association of Home Builders, who said  that its housing market
index for March
was the third lowest reading on record. Buyers are either waiting it out to see if prices fall more or just plain can’t get financing to buy homes, USA Today says.

And homebuilders are feeling the effect: The index came in at 20 in March for the second month in a row. It’s been at 20 or below since September. A reading of more than 50 indicates builder confidence is healthy.

That low confidence was reflected in the Commerce Department data reflected today–which showed future groundbreaking permits reached their lowest level in 16 years. Also:

  • Overall construction declined, with starts dropping 0.6 percent after going up 7.1 percent in January.
  • That January number was higher than originally thought–the Commerce Department had reported that housing starts were 0.8 percent higher in January. But the increase provided little comfort because of last month’s drop in starts. January, it seems, may have just been a blip on the radar–and we didn’t even realize it was a decent blip at the time.
  • And the annual comparison isn’t very hopeful, either: Housing starts last month were 28.4 percent lower than in February 2007.

Homebuilders don’t feel the slump is near over. Buyers clearly don’t either, if they’re still waiting for prices to fall further before they buy.

The same can be said of lending institutions–if they’re still being strict about loans, which is preventing home purchases for some buyers, it doesn’t seem they’re so sure the situation is close to being straightened out, either.

What needs to change first–buyer enthusiasm? Lender availability? Builder confidence? Homebuilder positivity will probably come last; but who most needs to light a fire under themselves to get the housing market moving: Banks or buyers? What do you think?

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