The recent Fed cuts increased business at mortgage companies like LendingTree.com–and decreased their need for advertising.

The day after the last rate cut, LendingTree.com had a record amount
of traffic. As a result, its marketing team immediately reduced its
search engine ad campaigns, according to The New York Times.

That may be good news for LendingTree.com, but it’s certainly not
good news for the search engine ad sector, which has reaped
considerable profits from financial services clients over the years.

The Decline Goes Online

Although the housing slump began in 2007, its effects on online advertising are just beginning to surface.

  • Financial ad spending usually rises by 30 to 50 percent each
    year; this year it is equal or down for some companies, according to
    Efficient Frontier, one of the largest buyers of paid search listings
    for marketers.
  • From January 2006 to January 2007,
    credit and mortgage ad spending increased by 24 percent; this year, spending is up just 3 percent from last year.

The financial services sector spends up to $2.7 billion each year
on online ads in the U.S.–one-third of that is mortgage-related, according to Oppenheimer.

No one is sure how the reduced spending will affect Google, Yahoo or other search engines (both of which did not comment in the Times
story)–but it is likely the effect will be felt. Losing a financial
services client means more to a search engine site than losing, say, a
retail client because the financial client pays higher rates for its
listings (an average cost-per-click price of $2.70, versus around $.36
for retailers, according to Efficient Frontier).

And Google’s stock price dropped by about 8 percent this week
because of concern that people weren’t focusing as much on its search
engine ads, according to the Times.

A Solution for Search Engines?

It’s entirely possible another sector will suddenly increase
advertising, softening the blow. After a moratorium against drug ads
was lifted in 1985, pharmaceutical consumer magazine ad spending
increased 77.4 percent to $123.5 million in 1993, according to Folio–providing an unexpected boost to magazine ad revenue that year.

Or search engines may just need to refocus their attention to
actively find that new ad source. Print newspapers have been damaged by
the housing decline–particularly in their classified sections. The
McClatchy Co. newspaper chain just reported a 14.4 percent decline in January revenue this week.

But a recent Editor & Publisher
article about how many small community newspapers last year
thrived–some even had their best year ever–suggested cultivating
smaller advertisers in the community and focusing on highly-targeted
local news coverage can help offset hurdles like the housing decline.
It’s helped smaller papers survive.

It would seem, then, that part of staying on top of the ad game–for
companies and for publications–involves really watching and reacting
to the local market. For newspapers, that market is a community. For
companies like LendingTree.com, it’s an industry.

And for search engines, that means the economy. What client (or
potential client) could be Google’s financial ad revenue replacement?
We’ll be watching to see if the company figures it out before its
profit takes a hit …

 

Wondering what the worst housing markets in the country are? Wells Fargo has made a list.

Wells Fargo–the
second-largest U.S. provider of home loans–denoted "soft,"
"distressed" or "severely distressed" markets in 24
states and Washington, D.C. in a document sent to mortgage brokers this week, according to Reuters. The list identified more than 200 troubled markets.

Wells Fargo will restrict lending in those areas starting tomorrow, by limiting loan size to a percentage of home values–no matter how safe the borrower seems.

The markets include:

  • At least 33 risky markets in California, with a minimum of 20 counties,
    including Los Angeles and San Diego, labeled as being in severe distress.
  • Thirty-three high-risk markets in Florida and 15 in Michigan
    and Virginia. Maryland and Ohio have 13 at-risk housing markets apiece.
  • Worrisome markets in Arizona, Colorado,
    Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Louisiana,
    Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New
    Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,
    Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Wells Fargo is a large lender, so further restrictions could mean tough times for troubled homeowners in at-risk markets trying to refinance. It’s not likely to help buyers dig into that bloated housing supply–which the Commerce Department revealed Wednesday had swelled to a 9.9 month supply, the largest in more than 26 years–in those areas, either.

The new Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and FHA regional loan limits will be announced by March 14, the deadline the economic stimulus bill gave HUD to determine area home prices; that should help some spots–especially areas with high-cost homes like California. Previous FHA limits in many areas of California were so low that many homebuyers purchasing moderate homes–which often were above the loan limits because the high average area home price was so high–couldn’t qualify.

Wells Fargo’s need (and all lenders’ need) to cover its back is understandable–protecting against future risk is important, and our financial system needs it to recover. But the outcome of Wells’ stricter lending standards really could potentially make the refi and buy situation worse.

Will other banks follow suit?

Common items are getting more expensive, and consumers are losing faith in the economy, according to data released on Tuesday.

Which is not good news for those hoping to prevent a recession (I’m guessing that would include pretty much everyone).

The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence for February dropped to 75–below expectations, and the lowest reading in 15 years (except for during the 2003 Iraq War). Consumers are down about the current and upcoming economy, according to The Wall Street Journal.

To be honest, the Conference Board didn’t sound so confident, either. "With so few consumers expecting conditions to turn around in the
months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the
risk of a recession continues to increase," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center.

Fan-tastic!  Good thing our cost of living isn’t going up–yet wait, it is. The Labor Department announced Tuesday that the core index–excluding food and energy costs–was up a
seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in January after an 0.2 percent
December rise.

Energy prices rose 1.5 percent last month; gas was up a whopping 2.9 percent. A New York Times article today said gas prices may hit $4 a gallon by spring, further dragging on household budgets.

Natural gas rose 0.7 percent, and food costs increased by 1.7 percent. (You know it’s bad when I sit down to dinner with a friend I hadn’t seen in awhile and one of the first thing she says is, "Seriously, have you SEEN what prices corn has been going for lately?")

Surely the rising prices aren’t helping with consumer confidence–but we’re in a vicious cycle. Rising cost of living prices weaken consumers’ faith in the economy, which, in turn, scares consumers into investing and spending less. Overall consumer spending–especially on nonessential items–drops, and the entire economy suffers. Which makes people more concerned about their personal investments and often prompts them to reduce spending–and the cycle begins again.

The bigger the strain on personal finances, the bigger the strain on the overall economy: But how do we stop the cycle?

  • Spend wisely. Invest conservatively. Save. Make home improvements now, while you know you’ll be in your home for several years due to the market. The home is most consumers’ biggest investment, so invest in it to invest in your future.
  • Encourage first-time homebuyers. They might be our strongest chance of getting out of the current housing slump because they’re the most logical group of buyers to attack the country’s ridicuously high housing inventory. Not only will young first-time buyers hopefully have strong enough credit histories (or at least, ones new enough to be fairly unblemished) to easily obtain loans in today’s market, their purchase won’t add another home to the market.
  • Be positive. We can’t cut the amount of negative housing industry and
    economic woe articles the media produces, but we can meter our reaction
    to them. Housing goes up, and housing goes down. The market will improve. So keep the faith–consumer confidence is never going to rise if all we do is
    focus on the negative now instead of the future forecast.

Condo and apartment property managers deal with many resident repairs–some of which are the building’s responsibility, some of which aren’t.

As I type this, a contractor is replacing my front door–in part because my circa-1985 door began splitting like a wishbone a week ago (the hallway got the larger half–so make a wish, elevators!), and in part (of course) because I believe in supporting the remodeling and repair industry.

Yet the experience has illustrated a few methods that can make the repair/remodel process smoother for property managers, contractors and residents–who are often all working independently for the same goal: A safe, reasonable repair that won’t disturb the building’s character or quality of living.

That said, because everyone is working independently, there can be a lot of back and forth, confusion and sometimes costly mistakes. So I’ve compiled the following suggestions for property managers, contractors and residents. Feel free to read them, develop them into a client handout, forward them, comment on them, add to them–I’d love to hear your input.

Ways Property Managers Can Make Their Lives (and Their Residents’ Repairs) Easier

You’re the source of knowledge for renters and for owners (maybe owners should know what repairs you cover and what ones you don’t, but more often than not, they’ll shoot you an e-mail or call to ask.)

As such, even if you’re not responsible for a repair (like, say, a condo unit’s front door), you can provide helpful guidance to residents to get the job done the way the building wants it done–and hopefully reduce future problems or eating up your time handling the issue. Some things to consider:

  • Have standard (but customizable) responses to common questions. When my door first began having issues, my building manager told me it was common in our building, and that I could swap it out with any solid wood core door. I assumed I’d also need to find a doorknob that looked like my old one–but the building didn’t have information on where to find it (or let me know most residents who replace doors swap it out from the current door, along with the peephole). As it turns out, the knob, peephole and deadbolt had to match the previous versions–which the contractor I hired told me. Had I done the repair myself, I wouldn’t have done that–resulting in more work for my property manager to let me know it had to be replaced and possible fines for my unit.
  • Provide a general timeline. The residents request may not
    be first priority on your list due to other pressing concerns–but you
    can bet it’s first on theirs. For repairs the building is responsible for, even if there will be a wait for the unit
    repair to be made, giving owners or renters an accurate estimate of
    when the problem will be fixed goes a long way toward building trust
    and resident satisfaction.
  • Keep a database of renter repairs. Have you had a lot of window frame issues in recent years? Are plumbing issues on the 4th floor becoming an increasing issue? Tracking unit issues can help you gauge overall building needs.
  • Consider doing an annual resident repair survey. In addition to finding out how residents feel about your level of service, an annual survey can help property managers find out what problems unit owners or renters are having and also can allow managers to develop a list of frequently used (and liked) contractors.
  • Go the extra mile on the first request. If a resident e-mails to ask about a repair that isn’t the building’s responsibility, providing a complimentary list of building-approved contractors and information on where to order any replacement parts the building requires isn’t just being proactive–it’s doing the job to the fullest and best extent possible.

Ways Contractors Can Make The Repair Process Easier

Always remember that residents have different levels of repair know-how–don’t assume they have too little or too much. They’re often desperate for a fix to be made or totally confused; other times, they’re debating doing it themselves, and you’re going to get hired based on your expertise. A few thoughts:

  • Be in touch–as promptly as possible. It’s hard to call potential clients back when you’re out working on jobs, but being in contact is important. One contractor I talked to Friday promised to call back with a quote either Saturday or Monday; I never heard from him. I moved on to another contractor, but even if I hadn’t, I took that as a sign of irresponsibility.
  • Be realistic about deadlines. If you’re not going to be able to get to the area for three days to do the repair, don’t say you’ll try to stop by that day.
  • Consider giving a quick quote. Obviously, you’ll need to come look at the unit for some repairs before giving a price estimate; but if it’s a fairly fast, standard job you’ve done many times in the building, give the unit owner an approximation or range. I called several contractors about the door; only one wanted to make an appointment to come see it, even after I told them it needed to be replaced very soon and they told me they’d done dozens in my building. When I pushed for a price estimate, it was so much higher than the other contractors I’d talked to, that–coupled with the fact they wanted to come out later in the week before starting work and my door was barely functional now–I took them off my list.
  • Make sure you include any extras. If your price includes a post-job cleaning service, special features or other services, tell the client on that first call. Always highlight your high level of service–almost all the contractors I spoke to made sure I knew they would also paint the door once it was installed.
  • Develop relationships with large buildings. Rental buildings may outsource a number of their repairs; condo buildings often recommend contractors regularly who are known for doing good work–which can significantly cut the amount of time you spend on marketing yourself to new clients.

And Finally, Ways Residents Can Make Life in General Easier for Everyone

You may want the repair done yesterday–but you want it done right.

  • Confirm all repairs with the building. It’s better to check beforehand about approved materials and installation methods–before you do the work and risk a fine.
  • Don’t panic, and be polite. When you contact your property manager,
    realize the situation will be fixed, if it is by the building or you.
    Hysteria isn’t going to help.
  • Consider using a building-approved contractor. It’s less paperwork and you may get them sooner if they’re already there working on other projects. (Mine came the next day because they were working on someone’s unit on the 6th floor.)
  • Do your homework. Figure out what’s wrong, look up any related terms and be able to describe the problem to any contractors or the property manager–it makes everyone’s life easier.
  • Confirm the services are what you want. Are you responsible for clean-up? Do you need to sand or paint anything, or will the contractor do that before leaving?

Have any other tips or suggestions for property managers, renters or contractors? Share your industry knowledge by posting below!

On Friday, we discussed how some celebrities seem to have unusual luck in the real estate market–and why some buildings are using celebrities as a marketing tools.

However, some people could care less about whether or not a famous person is attached to the home they want to buy.

And–especially in today’s market–celeb power alone may not sell a unit.

The Star Sell: Not for Everybody

A star owner or neighbor, in some cases, may up the value or quicken the sale of a condo or apartment.

But celebrity tie-ins aren’t popular with all developers–or with all celebrities, for a variety of reasons:

  • Not all buildings are interested in a celeb connection.
    Developer Izak Senbahar said that Leonardo DiCaprio’s broker suggested
    he receive a 20 percent discount for buying in the 165 Charles Street
    building. "I said, ‘I don’t
    think so.’ We don’t need gimmicks," Senbahar told The Wall Street Journal. (DiCaprio’s spokesman declined
    to comment.)

And truthfully, the effectiveness of promoting a building or unit with a celeb name is unclear. New York real estate Web site Curbed.com says celebs don’t always sell apartments faster.

"In the case of Madonna and the East 62nd Street townhouse, yes. Lenny Kravitz and the Duke Semans mansion, not so much," the site says. (Luxist.com also reports Courtney Love had a hard time selling her unit at 30 Crosby Street, where Kravitz’ also lived–he’s had a hard time with property it seems.)

Also, not all celebs cash out on real estate deals: "Law and Order" actress Mariska Hartigay sold her downtown penthouse
apartment, originally listed for $6.5 million, for
$5.1 million in fall, according to The New York Post.

According to Forbes,
while celebrities will sometimes attach their name to a condo or
single-family home to get more attention, it doesn’t always bring a
higher price. Paddington Zwigard, a broker for Brown Harris Stevens in
New York, says she’ll subtly reference the celeb connection in
listings–calling properties something like a "celebrated loft" rather
than one "owned by a star."

In recent years, Zwigard has quietly put Harvey
Keitel’s Tribeca loft (and numerous other celeb listings) on the market. But even Zwigard says celeb
pull only does so much–because in the end, closing the sale is all about price,
location (of course) and generally fitting a property with a buyer’s needs.

“I really try to spend a lot of time talking to somebody at the
beginning and finding out what they want,” she told Forbes. “It feels great
when you get a person and it clicks."

After all–whether or not it involves a celebrity–isn’t that true of any real estate deal?

Selling a home is no easy task these days–unless you’re famous.

Forget how easy it must be to finance a home if you make millions. The real perks of being a star involve living at a luxury address that was owned previously by another celeb and/or features famous neighbors. (P. Diddy paid $5 million for his three-bedroom Park Imperial Manhattan apartment–which came with great views and neighbors Tommy Mottola and Deepak Chopra.)

And–of course–those perks also involve being able to said the home easily when you decide it’s time for another.

While celeb mansions may be the norm in L.A., in New York, fancy apartments are just as prevalent as celeb-owned townhomes–and so are successful celeb real estate deals.

  • Model Jessica Stam bought an $800,000 New York condo–her second–in 2004 and sold it for $935,000, according to the New York Observer.
  • Julia Roberts is practically a Manhattan land baron, according to Forbes. She sold her Greenwich Village apartment in 2004 but still
    owned a bunch of
    apartments on Gramercy Park, including a penthouse and unit for guest
    or staff quarters, at the time.

Celeb Market (and Marketing) Success

The New York Times reported in December that the general housing market seemed to be gearing toward multifamily housing as mortgages became more and more difficult to obtain. Not surprisingly, celebs, too, are snapping up apartments–and a few who sell are experiencing unbelievable success, despite the otherwise troubled housing market.

For example, New England Patriot Tom Brady reportedly sold his three-bedroom condo in Boston’s swanky Burrage Mansion–which features five parking spots–for $5.39 million recently, according to the Times Colonist. Brady bought the unit in 2004 for $4.1 million.

A quick sale? A profit? Celebrity has its privileges, indeed. Which is why, when it comes to real estate, star power is no new marketing tool.

Some developers–like James Helman, who created the 42-story Las Olas
River House
condominium development in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.–have harnessed celeb PR power to promote new complexes.

Helman gave former football star Dan Marino a discount
on a 3,382-square-foot, three-bedroom unit in the property in exchange for some promotion because, as Helman says, "In Florida, Dan is the
man."

Dan is also the display in Florida, thanks to Helman, who put him up on billboards around Fort Lauderdale promoting Las Olas, according to a 2005 Wall Street Journal article. (He’s also all over the "events" section of Las Olas’ Web site.)

Free Trips, Treats–and Three-Bedroom Units

Celebrity perks–like a condo discount–are nothing new. Fashion designers have been outfitting stars with clothes for years because it’s free PR. "The same way every designer wants to dress Nicole or Gwyneth for the
Oscars, every developer wants to say someone fabulous bought in the
building or even looked at it," New York broker Michele Kleier of
Gumley Haft Kleier Inc. told the Journal.

The luxury Cipriani Club Residences at 55 Wall Street also enlisted a little star shine to promote the condos before they hit the market. Margherita Missoni–a member of the Missoni designer family–and actor Mickey Rourke "allowed their names to be attached to the project," according to the Journal.

Supermodel Naomi Campbell posed with co-developer Giuseppe Cipriani for a photo that was used in promotional materials and ads in Vanity Fair. For allowing photo use, the celebs received a discount, Cipriani said; Campbell’s publicist told the Journal that her modeling fee was
deducted from the condo price.

Not a bad deal for the celebrity–but is it a bargain for the developer? Join us Monday for part two of our look at celeb condos and apartments to find out …

The next sector to be hurt by the housing slump? Small businesses, according to USA Today.

A ripple effect could threaten small companies when larger companies–such as homebuilders and developers–see losses and cut jobs, says James Barrood, executive director of Fairleigh Dickenson University’s Rothman Institute of Entrepreneurial Studies.

The effect a reduced housing demand has on builders and developers spreads directly to building material suppliers and vendors; which then decreases business activity in industries like travel and business equipment.

Just look at California. The state’s weakening housing industry is expected to slow payroll employment growth in the state for the next two years and drag down overall growth, according to BusinessWeek.

If the country falls into a recession, retail, business-service and housing-related smaller businesses are in trouble; but they’re already not faring well. The newer victims would be businesses of all kinds with 20 to 30 employees, which depend on second mortgages and equity loans for finance money, according to Todd McCracken, president of the National Small Business Association trade group.

The country’s 26 million small businesses can actually pull the economy out of a recession, McCracken says–but only if they have the money to invest in themselves. Yet small business owners don’t seem to be feeling in control: A recent National Federation of Independent Business survey showed industry optimism hit its lowest level last month since 1991.

And, unfortunately, 30 percent of banks have been restricting their commercial and industrial small company loans this year–making it harder than ever to lean on small business as our economic savior.

It would seem that it’s time for small businesses to start investigating other financing sources–with as small a connection as possible to the mortgage market–and to start reaching out to new clients in different markets. Many lenders now wish they’d insulated themselves better before the subprime collapse; but there’s a reason people say hindsight is 20/20.

And really, the housing decline can’t be blamed for putting all small businesses in danger. In the end, tenacity, resourcefulness and smart planning will make or break a business–regardless of a strong economy or a soft one.

On Forbes‘ recent list of the best–and worst–small businesses to start, real estate services (which included appraisers and property managers) landed at No. 4.

But small lending institutions–community banks, credit unions and other deposit-based organizations–were No. 10 on the best businesses list. True, they deal with mortgages and mortgage-related finance–but they also run a tight ship. Only 48 cents of every dollar goes toward overheard, according to Forbes.

Why, despite a national housing slump, would small banks who provide community members with funding for homes, cars and other expenses do well, and the real estate industry–which helps people spend that money on their biggest investment–suffer?

"In some industries, knowing an area, its people and its geography matters more than scale," James Nolen, professor of finance at the University of Texas at Austin, told Forbes. "Smaller companies can also respond to changing industry dynamics [better] than their larger counterparts."

Which would mean small businesses probably could do more to protect themselves from the housing decline’s effect than some of the larger lending institutions and real estate companies ever could have. That’s great news. Because if small businesses do manage to successfully safeguard, they could save themselves–and the U.S. economy.

When the economic stimulus checks start making their way to our mailboxes later this year, the government is hoping we’ll all cash them and promptly go shopping.

In the last round of rebates, in 2001, many did: according to Citigroup, 25 percent of the rebates issued in 2001 were spent at Wal-Mart alone.

But it’s unclear how Americans will spend the rebates this time. The economy is unquestionably worse; housing starts are at their lowest level since 1991, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday.

And everyday living is getting more expensive. The CPI rose by 0.4 percent again in January. Food costs shot up 0.7 percent, their most abrupt increase in a year.

Which may be why one recent poll found that only 16 percent of Americans plan to spend all their rebate; nearly one in three respondents said they planned to pay down debt with the rebates of $600 per individual and $1,200 per couple.

If you consider that Wal-Mart customers last month were cashing in their Christmas gift cards on basics like food instead of discretionary income buys like stereos, according to the Financial Times, it stands to reason the rebates will go toward life’s little–and big–necessities.

Still, another survey–this one by the National Retail Federation– found Americans will spend 40 percent of their rebate cash when it gets here in May, putting $30 billion will go toward paying debt and $19.8 billion will go into savings. But maybe that’s just wishful thinking on the part of the retail association.

The whole point of the stimulus plan was to increase consumer spending and beef up the economy–but if one in three people use it to pay debt or bank it, it’s going to have a lesser effect. Therein lies the problem with the stimulus plan–we have no way of knowing what the majority of Americans will do with a check for $600 to $1,200.

It’s unlikely, unfortunately, that they’ll spend it on housing. Remodeling is struggling (the National Association of Home Builders expects little remodeling growth in 2008, according to MarketWatch) and, although bonuses–another form of extra gifted money–helped propel the New York real estate market in recent years (and, when Wall Street bonuses declined, helped threaten it last year), $1,200 won’t go far toward a downpayment.

But if consumers spend the rebate on retail goods, increasing consumer spending, the ripple effect could eventually reach housing–once manufacturing picks up, banks feel secure enough to relax their lending standards and more houses disappear off the bloated U.S. housing inventory.

But $600–heck, even $1,200–is a long way away from that. Will the stimulus plan work? What do you think?

Yesterday, we discussed the prime mortgage market’s difficulties–which include homeowners with good credit falling behind on their payments.

The causes are similar to the factors that pushed the subprime sector into rocky waters. And–even though considerably less troubled prime borrowers exist–the prime defaults are cause for concern.

What’s next?

Well, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest rate of prime mortgages since the MBA began tracking prime and subprime mortgages in 1998 were delinquent or in foreclosure at the end of September.

As the country tries to spur residential building and the housing market by unloading some of its housing supply, it’s not helping that we’re adding foreclosed properties to the number of homes on the market. Nearly half the home sales in some parts of California recently involved foreclosed houses, according to USA Today.

However, some help–along with measures to prevent the situation from happening again–is on the way, in the form of:

  • Reduced Rates. The Fed has cut short term interest rates, which should help ease reset rates.
  • More realistic home equity credit. Banks are also starting to cap home equity lines of credit–in Florida, one of the prime- and subprime-damaged states, some lenders have moved to making home equity loans based on 90 percent (or less) of a home’s value instead of 100 percent, the Florida Times-Union reported recently.
  • Increased consumer credit monitoring. In addition, credit card companies are reducing limits–and increasing penalties–for high-risk customers, which may help curb growing debt in the future (although it will undoubtedly cause problems at first).

USA Today reported in early February that Bank of America plans to periodically review consumers and raise rates on some they perceive to be a risk–not necessarily because of the current mortgage issues, but some analysts say is related to overall lender losses. Consumers are, after all, falling behind on all sorts of payments.

  • A plan to prevent foreclosure. And then there is Project Lifeline, the new plan announced by Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide, J.P. Morgan, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo last Tuesday, which pledges to help foreclosure-facing borrowers work out a way to keep their home.

However, the plan is barely a week old and has already come under criticism from the Center for Responsible lending, which called it a "rope that is too short" due to its limitations, which exclude anyone who has missed more than three months of payments and has a foreclosure date less than 30 days away.

If more prime borrowers become entrenched in the subprime cycle, the blow to the economy could be unimaginable.

Have we seen the worst of the damage? It’s hard to say. After all, did we really predict the full extent of the subprime fallout when it started?

When homeowner-related credit issues began, they involved subprime borrowers–people with less than perfect credit–prompting criticism when the government stepped in with its Hope Now program to help those homeowners avoid foreclosure.

Some asked, why should we help homebuyers who over extended themselves? Isn’t that their problem?

Well, according to a recent New York Times article, it’s now everybody’s problem.

Decreased home prices and stricter lending standards have pushed some homeowners with good credit backgrounds behind on their payments–less than the 24 percent of subprime borrowers which are delinquent or in foreclosure, the Times says, but in some areas, still a staggering amount.

For example, Arizona: The Mortgage Bankers Association found that between the third quarters of 2006 and 2007, ARM-related prime homeowner foreclosures rose 902 percent in Arizona, according to BusinessWeek.

And, all the while, subprime loans continue to do their damage. The MBA says that while subprime ARMs represent just 6.8 percent of the current loans, they comprised 43 percent of the foreclosures initiated during the third quarter of 2007.

(Interestingly enough, a ripple effect is occurring in the U.K.; more than half of the foreclosure orders are subprime borrower-owned homes, despite the fact that–as in the U.S.–they’re just 6 percent of all U.K. mortgages, according to a BBC News report.)

Mortgage payments aren’t the only trouble prime borrowers have stumbled into lately. If they aren’t defaulting on their home loans, the Times says, the prime borrowers are falling behind on their auto loans and credit card payments–at an increasing pace.

And that’s about the last thing that the housing market needs.

“This collapse in housing value is sucking in all borrowers,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, told the Times.

  • Why is it happening? Many subprime and prime borrowers took out the same kind of loans–adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that reset to a higher rate after several years of lower payments–so prime borrowers are just as susceptible to sudden higher post-reset payments as subprime borrowers.

When home prices were rising, both groups had more leeway to refinance or sell; now they are both facing high resets. The bottom line? Too many loan programs allowed too many homeowners to buy homes out of their comfort level with little to no money down on the hopes the market would keep rising–and it didn’t.

  • Why is it a problem? Because prime borrowers carried the weight of the subprime borrowers–for awhile, they were thought to be balancing out some of the subprime defaults, according to the Times.
  • Where is it happening? The states with the highest increase in prime ARM foreclosure starts in the third quarter of 2007–Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona (which would help explain that horrific rise in prime homeowner foreclosure starts)–have a large amount of investment properties that were purchased to flip and make a profit, according to BusinessWeek.

Arizona had the eighth highest foreclosure rate in 2007; Nevada and Florida ranked No. 1 and 2, according to RealtyTrac.

And–unfortunately–those aren’t the only places experiencing prime problems. For the second half of our look at the prime borrower slip, including a look at what factors will heavily influence the prime market’s future, check out MHN’s blog tomorrow! 

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